"Super Bowl Indicator"
Last weekend, the United States celebrated a national carnival, the Super Bowl.
The Super Bowl is the annual championship game of the National Football League (NFL), and the NFL Super Bowl was officially held on February 12, which is why this Sunday is often referred to as 鈥Super Bowl Sunday鈥.
But did you know that the Super Bowl, which has been played for half a century, can even predict the direction of US stocks?
In the US stock market, there is a very famous "Super Bowl" law.
The two teams facing each other in the Super Bowl Finals are from the American Football Confederation (AFC) and the National Football Confederation (NFC).
In the 1970s, Leonard Koppett, an American sports columnist, noted an interesting "pattern".
If the AFC team wins the Super Bowl, the stock market falls that year; if the NFC team wins, then the stock market rises that year.
This pattern is known as the "The Super Bowl indicator."
Although this metric may seem metaphysical, this theory has successfully predicted 15 of the 16 Super Bowl games prior to this one!
As the Wall Street Journal wrote, "It would be hard to ignore an indicator with a hit rate of more than 94 percent.鈥
The Super Bowl indicator has correctly predicted the direction of the stock market several times in a row (Source: Statista)
By the end of 2022, the Super Bowl indicator has correctly predicted the direction of the S&P 500 Index 41 out of 56 times, a hit rate of 73%!
鈥Gold bag鈥
While it remains to be seen whether there is a correlation between the results of the game and the performance of US stocks, the economic benefits of the Super Bowl, which has a strong money attraction, cannot be underestimated.
The Super Bowl is the most-watched television episode in the country almost every year, surpassing the finals of all major sports leagues and the Academy Awards, and has been become an unofficial national holiday.
According to the latest data from the financial magazine Forbes, the Super Bowl is valued at $420 million and has long sat on the throne of the most commercially valuable sporting event.
In other words, the Super Bowl is worth more commercially than the Olympics ($230 million) and the World Cup ($120 million) combined!
"If you want to get a sense of where the U.S. economy will end up in an era, all you have to do is watch the Super Bowl commercials.鈥
涓The average cost of 30-second ads in previous Super Bowls (unit: USD million)
(Source: Nielsen Media Research)
The price of advertising during the Super Bowl can be described as astronomical, and this year it reached $7 million per 30 seconds! The commercial value that the Super Bowl can bring is obvious.
Before the kickoff and during the halftime break, the organizers also invite the most popular musicians, so the halftime show attracts people who don鈥t watch football at all.
A national sporting event with top stars in the house consistently makes the Super Bowl number one in the ratings, and this year nearly 190 million viewers will watch the Super Bowl.
Is it credible?
Predictions about Super Bowl indicators, while much more often right than wrong, only prove that the Super Bowl and the stock market have some correlation.
A statistics professor at Yale University has stated that the accuracy of Super Bowl indicators is just a coincidence - the reason is that the stock market often rises and the NFC often scores Super Bowl victories.
